Posted in Economic

Is there oversupply of paper gold as against limited real physical gold ?

Digital gold needs no intro: it is the most happening investment in world markets today making headlines for months now. There is however reportedly, an oversupply of paper gold or digital gold in the world for a while, than actual physical gold in circulation, a point missed by most of us retail investors. Trading/holding stocks in digital gold has made this possible. Holding digital gold is also hassle-free than physical possession. It is said that the ratio of paper gold to physical existing gold in the world could be as skewed as 100:1 or even 250:1. So could this bubble burst anytime crashing the gold markets one fine day? With not enough real gold to back up the digital gold, it is possible that the world economy could be heading towards a crash so far as gold market is concerned. Probably that is why, those like Warren Buffet allegedly keep off digital gold. Digital gold could be a good short term investment than a long term plan, it is said. ETFs seem to be the most favoured platform of gold investment. Owning the physical gold is still the safest way as we know because we are in direct possession of the actual gold that can be stashed away in a vault.

What do I attribute to digital gold working? I, as an Indian housewife, am used to hoarding gold as traditional practice, and don’t fear the fall of the gold prices. But it is true that we women in India hold actual gold in our hands, how much so ever minimum could that be. For us, gold is LIQUIDITY that is matchless. Gold is economic freedom. And gold appreciates maximum, next only to real estate. All these factors make gold the most favoured investment for us ladies. If gold has to crash, then the bubble has to burst in every sector should loans be recalled at short notice, for that matter. World economy will collapse. Just recall housing loan enmasse and see what happens. Domino’s effect. Like a pack of cards, everything has to come crashing in that case. Reality is never the point in the world of economics. How do credit cards work then? Is gold the only bubble waiting to burst? Nations borrow heavily. But I do understand the need to cap the gold market at some point of time. As someone who is in the line of investment averred, gold is not a productive investment and therefore its growth is unnatural. Stocks normally boom when the productivity index improves and quarterly reports show good results. Gold however obeys no such laws. Very much akin to real estate, gold appreciates in value only because of the superficial demand its scarce availability manages to create as against its actual supply. Having said that, a humble housewife/grandma here with no compatible background to post such a comment! But I take the liberty with my half baked info/knowledge!

Can digital gold be realized into real gold? I observed this from a couple of Indian banks. First of all even the leading ones did not have the digital gold platforms that sold 24 k gold gram by gram (or ounce by ounce). ETFs/Gold funds were on offer. But there was this one bank that sold digital gold for a few months which on demand was stated to be deliverable at your doorstep. Product withdrawn from bank services with November end, no wonder! The digital gold sale by ounce did not even last a good six months! Probably the reason is that the bank feared inability to keep up with real supply on demand from customers. However, I see that digital gold sale ounce by ounce is still on offer by a few digital platforms and jewelry houses. The jewelry houses in India cleverly state that your digital gold can be acquired only as gold coins or jewelry from their premises! Well, that means, you can never encash your digital gold at these jewelry houses! In short, by investing in digital gold in these jewelry houses, you are only paying in installments/lumpsum for your future gold purchases! Govt of India and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) do not regulate these platforms trading in digital gold and therefore investment in these platforms may remain risky.

As I see, the govt of India that was issuing sovereign gold bonds for years has since withdrawn the bond issuances from last year! The big headache of paying off the maturing bonds in near future awaits the Indian govt!

Any other info I may glean, I shall update here with.

What do I think about middle class investments in digital gold. I think if you can take the risk, you can afford to invest in digital gold. It still is a great investment – long term investment in my PERSONAL opinion. Its worth the risk, provided you have other investments to bank on, in case of an unprecedented crash. So far world has not witnessed such a debacle, but let us wait and watch.

Posted in Economic

New GST Reforms

How Modi govt has decided to tackle the tariff issue with the US is amazing. Thanks to president Trump, we Indians have realized why it is even more important to increase local consumption and depend less on export revenue. Result is the semi conductor industry proposed by the centre among many other developmental projects towards the goal ‘atma nirbhar Bharat.’ But the icing in the cake is how as Diwali gift the BJP government has slashed the GST to unbelievable low rates to encourage consumption by the middle classes and push up demand. Production and thereby the economy will get the boost. At the same time, the DIIs, the domestic institutional investors are in a buying frenzy than ever, outstripping the FIIs, the foreign institutional investors in the Indian stock markets. This is a healthy trend and is more about self reliance. About the US tariff imposition of 50% I want to say this: we cannot have a say or hold on foreign government rulings. But we can tweak ourselves and use every opportunity as stepping stone to improve ourselves. Every setback is a motivation to move two steps ahead. Trump’s 50% tariff imposition on India is a blessing in disguise for the Indian economy. There is not a capital goods sector now in India which is not seeing a heavy investment flow. Simultaneously Modi govt is also on signing spree of free trade agreements with nations and is diversifying our exports portfolio. Significant are the trade deals signed with African nations for rare earth minerals that can see mutual prosperity. Africa has long been exploited and shaved of their valuable minerals and gems. I like the reach out of Modi ji to the various nations across the globe. Very recently he was in Japan and the solidarity expressed by the Japanese with India is remarkable.

I wish Trump too is in the picture. There is no point in animosity and adversity and toxicity. Together great nations can work wonders and do a lot for humanity.

See, you are looking at 1.4 billion nation, one seventh of the world population. We are literally the movers and shakers here. We are shockproof, jolt proof. Nothing can rattle India. India will go on to eternity. Don’t write your history after 300 years of existence. Have a history that is 10000 years old that cannot even be documented.

As for as our PM Shri Modi ji is concerned, first of all he does not have a family. He is fasting most of the days or he is on frugal vegetarian diet. He is a yogi and has no self serving interests, as he owns no business or holds anything much by way of movable/immovable assets. The nation is his 24 hour preoccupation. He is unlike any other world leader of present times. He is principled. He is not profit motivated. He is deeply spiritual. He meditates. He has stepped into thousands of Hindu temples within India in the last 15 years. And unlike others, we Indians don’t believe his karma was to head our nation. His karma was to BUILD THE RAM TEMPLE AND BRING BACK RAM TO AYODHYA for which he was bestowed with the right kind of power that could enable him to make it a reality. Who could he have been in his previous janams? Perhaps the maratha warrior king Chatrapathi Shivaji himself? Whosever reincarnation Modi ji could be, I have no doubt in my mind that in every single birth of his, he probably strove to build the Ram temple and oust the mad mugals out of our sacred Hindu nation. His karmic love for our punya bhoomi is what led to this birth of his in which he has already kind of achieved his karmic goals. The PM post itself could be incidental. During his period India has prospered, grown stronger and mightier. He has the love and respect of even our minorities and has admirers through out the world.

Indian history is over 10000 years ancient. Unwritten Hindu history has spanned that longer. Nobody can write off India. Hindus were advanced civilization when the white man was swinging from tree to tree in Europe. We all go through temporary glitches. What we see in India is not development but REDEVELOPMENT, that’s all.

India-US relations will be back to normal soon. I don’t think temporary issues will sour permanent relationships that have been going steady for decades. India shall at the same time have friendly relations with Russia, Ukraine, China, Japan, Iran, Israel everyone. Why not. Nobody is our adversary. India’s level however is not abysmal low as Pakistan’s, to be shaking hands with them. That is Bangladesh’s job. Now, they are equal partners and deserve each other. Don’t want Pakistan Bangladesh even on BUY ONE GET ONE FREE OFFER. We all relate at our level, right. We have OUR standards. Our values. Through their friendships and alliances, nations define THEIR CLASS. Character is what is elegance. And nations too have character. Not just character, KARMA as well. Leaders write the karma of their nations, good or bad. So far as Pakistan is concerned, it is NEGATIVITY to describe in single word.

Finally a pat on the back to our PM Shri Narendra Modi, finance minister Smt. Nirmala Sitaraman, Ajit Doval ji and Shri Jaishankar. What a team we have. Excellent GST reforms which reflect that India would rather WORK ON HERSELF than try to twist others’ arms. I want to see Sensex soar over 100000 points soon and NIFTY over 50000. Let us make that happen as a nation! Together with you Modiji, in every step.

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Posted in Economic

Who wants Tesla when Electric Auto Rickshaw is here?

Yesterday was my first time in Electric auto rickshaw from Anna Nagar East to my home. Booked through Uber. I was surprised by the green colour of the auto. Did not even notice the details of booking that stated clearly that my upcoming ride was an EV, the electric auto. It was only on few minutes into the ride that I paid attention to the EV marking of the auto. Then I asked the driver. He said, yes indeed the auto was electric. He was driving it for last seven to eight months. No noise, no pollution. Smooth as silk he said. He said he charged the auto at home as Chennai is yet to have charging points for auto rickshaws. As of now, the city has electric vehicle charging points only in petrol bunks where owners of both cars and two wheelers can have their vehicles charged apart from at their homes. The green electric auto that was my ride was Bajaj make. It was economical – may not be too very cheaper but definitely not expensive, said the driver. Up until now the battery was good and the charging at home held good for entire day. I wanted to take a picture with him and his auto, but I stopped with just a selfie. Let the driver and his auto have some privacy!

Why do we need anything from America when we can have a far better, wiser Indian option. Who cares for luxury sedan? I am carless and happily carless! I love the autos and the city metro that are my favourite modes of transport. And of course I depend on Nataraja service (walking my way around the city’s congested streets). Life is beautiful. India WILL survive. Not here for nothing going by same name Bharat for 10,000 years. Not exactly the mushroom that sprang up in last evening’s rain.

By the way, I am here since the third week of August only – home at last in 2025. The profusion of EVs is staggering as I can see, compared to last year exactly around this time. Two wheelers lead the rally.

See, these are our needs: electric autos, EV two wheelers and then finally EV sedans mid size. We don’t need the plush range. I have no shame in admitting that I am middle class and I come from a third world nation. We have to think about affordability and durability. We will do what is GOOD FOR INDIA, NOT AMERICA!

Autos in the city mostly switched over to CNG fuel many years back, so that has actually supposedly reduced a bit of pollution. But this latest moving over of autos to electric mode is the best thing to happen to our city. I mean, for EVs normally you visualize sedans, SUVs and even two wheelers. How many of us ever factored in the EV auto? Auto is anyway my most favoured means of transport. Excited by the transformation! Hopefully the auto rickshaw walas of Chennai enmasse go electric soon! For that to materialize, may we have more charging points for autos around the city. Jai Bharat!

Posted in Economic

SEBI bans Jane Street

Not at all surprised. Most of us retailers are minimum or small investors who don’t matter. But our funds are hard-earned money marked for retirement, children’s graduation etc. Our stock investments are our nest egg. We invest our life savings in BSE/NSE, India’s national stock exchanges, and what happens? We are taken to dizzying heights only to be plummeted to unimaginable lows so harshly that most of us have to write off our losses. At the same time, the FIIs or the Foreign Institutional Investors have been spotted laughing their way out of our stock markets. I am not a tech person to talk about this but I can understand when experts explain things to us in layman language.

https://www.livemint.com/market/stock-market-news/sebi-bans-jane-street-revealed-list-of-nifty-50-bank-nifty-stocks-that-us-brokerage-targeted-11751616782235.html

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/company/corporate-trends/jane-street-vs-millennium-a-us-tech-feud-sparked-indias-biggest-market-probe/articleshow/122263135.cms?from=mdr

https://www.ndtvprofit.com/markets/sebi-bars-jane-street-group-from-indian-securities-market

Entire market is manipulative, going by its nature, agreed. Still this is audacious. What has America got to say on this. Tight lipped as about Lehman brothers’ losses? The Third world countries bore the brunt of Lehman brothers. Any idea for America to make good our losses? To someone talking tough on immigration, dispensing economic justice must not be a problem. The US govt also holds tonnes of gold of world nations including India, entrusted to them for safekeeping. Sometimes one wonders, whether the gold may be safer in India!

Anyway, ever since Trump came to power and the markets went on bear mode, we have our DIIs in India , the Domestic Institutional Investors, picking up the reins which is a good sign. Anyway I trust the DIIs over FIIs. The industrial growth story looks promising, the order books look good, the net profits are soaring. India shall remain a top economy in Asia registering highest possible growth rate and a top investment destination.

Posted in Economic

Prada coolly copies Kohlapuri without royalty or regret

Imagine the state of our mind when the innocent and down-to-earth handmade popular Kohlapuri chappals got just-like-that lifted by Prada that sold a 1000 rs (10$ plus loose change in US currency) pair for over 1000$ using their brand name! No regret, no apology, no acknowledgement, no royalty whatsoever.

Finally Prada came around to acknowledge the Indian inspired latest footwear of theirs. Tell me what haven’t the west stolen from Hindus/ancient India and got things patented as their own invention?

India is not a developing nation. India is a reemerging nation, redeveloping nation.

Posted in Economic, Political

India now the world’s fourth largest economy!

By 2040, China is expected to become the world’s largest economy followed by India in the second position. The USA will be the third largest. This very same year as India breezes past Japan, we also are keeping our fingers crossed about whizzing past Germany as well. If not in 2025, definitely by 2026, India shall become the world’s third largest economy. Kudos to our hardworking industrious population who have made this possible for us. What a moment!

Posted in Economic

The small and big of the things in the world.

What an inspiring speech by the Singapore PM on tariffs imposed by the US! One could be smaller in stature but tall and imposing when it comes to honour,dignity and shame. How should a head of a state be at all. Class is character. Elegance is the grace of our soul. How reassuring this great man sounds to his abject population. This tiny independent nation stands to lose a lot because of reciprocal tariffs. But remember, we live in a world where the west condemned India for manufacturing and distributing Covid vaccine for free to third world African and Asian countries, because it impacted the sales pitch of their pharma industries. This is also why India cannot be the next China or America ever in history. We are a nation guided by our Dharmic values NOT CHRISTIAN. You do WHAT IS RIGHT WHATSOEVER.

As for Singapore, they buy even their water from their neighbour Malaysia. They have a sound economy and are a center for academics and medical sciences and technology. A peaceful model nation from who advanced first world countries can learn a lesson. Singapore also faces the immigrants issue. A multi cultural secular society, I would hate to see Singapore suffer.

Larger nations like India have a moral responsibility toward smaller unstable nations who have a heightened sense of insecurity about their very existence because of the limited extent of their geographical territory and overt dependence on foreign trade. Until the very recent Bangladesh turmoil, millions of Bangladeshi muslims received free or very subsidized medical treatment in any corner of India they chose to, a concession not even extended to fellow Indians. This included critical care for heart disease, cancer and even organ transplants and eye treatment. India has supported and keeps supporting Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Maldives – because that is what a big brother does. Magnanimity is what must be the character of an elder brother. Generous is how he must be toward even his wayward younger brothers. You lead head and shoulders over them with your solid character, motivating them, inspiring them. We could be a poor nation ourselves but that never stops India from lending a helping hand to the weaker vulnerable countries.

America does what it is best for them ECONOMICALLY. The price that America pays will be in terms of UNIVERSAL GOODWILL. America also forgets that, as Singapore PM says, things are fluid by nature, which means it won’t take a minute for the Democrats to restore things to how they used to be. When a government flouts or changes laws or challenges judges, they are setting a precedent for future governments to follow in their footsteps.

Falkland Islands get slapped with 42% tariffs by the US. Now this is a very small island country of mere 4000 residents where fishing accounts for 60% of the local income. Marine exports to America constitute their chief source of income. Steep tariffs have been imposed on African nations as well, Lesotho taking the worst hit.

India may suffer a loss of income to the tune of 15$ to 35$ billion which we do have the capacity to bear. India has trade surplus with the US as our exports amount to about 80$ billion. The lowering of tariffs in India can make our own local manufacturing more competitive. My nation is colossal! Mammoth! We are 1.4 billion. We can take any shock or jolt and we can survive and outlive anything and everything! Nothing can unsettle us or rattle us. We are battle hardened, scarred, and very rooted country with ancient history and vibrant local economy. Even so, I admire the negotiating skills of my PM and foreign minister. Do not underestimate them. They are merely playing along, doing their best in the circumstances.

Its not that America is not feeling the pinch either. Their markets have reportedly skimmed a neat 6.5 $trillion already since the tariffs were announced. Mumbai’s Sensex shed around 3000 points the following morning. But India’s loss once again compared to other world nations was less alarming.

Stock markets on April 7, 2025 across the globe 🔴🔻

🇭🇰 Hong Kong: -13.6%
🇹🇼 Taiwan: -9.6%
🇯🇵 Japan: -9.5%
🇮🇹 Italy: -8.4%
🇸🇬 Singapore: -8%
🇸🇪 Sweden: -7%
🇨🇳 China: -7%
🇨🇭 Switzerland: -7%
🇩🇪 Germany: -6.8%
🇪🇸 Spain: -6.4%
🇳🇱 Netherlands: -6.2%
🇦🇺 Australia: -6.2%
🇫🇷 France: -6.1%
🇬🇧 UK: -5.2%
🇲🇾 Malaysia: -4.5%
🇵🇭 Philippines: -4.3%
🇮🇳 India: -4.1%
🇷🇺 Russia: -3.8%
🇸🇦 Saudi: -3.3%
🇹🇷 Turkey: -2.8%

America is pushing consumers around the world to become more discerning and not choosing American imports as it is seen happening already in the European countries and Canada. Finally, is this all worth it. Will America’s gains outweigh their losses in the long run? Time will have the best answer.

Posted in Economic

US can consider waiver of taxes for dollars repatriated by Indian parents.

Many Indian parents are in a fix when their children migrate to the US. Real estate in India is expensive. They would want to transfer dollars/ savings/ investments/ insurances and also terminal benefits to their kids in the US. But they face double taxation that will drain their finances. 35% of capital gains taxes in India, followed by equal taxes by the US may not leave much for the kids, in case the parents want to dispose of their real estate in India and want to transfer funds to the US to their children. Its hopeless trying to get the Indian govt to lower the taxes. But the investments are going to go the US permanently. The US can consider waiver of taxes on investment capital from Indian parents to their kids in the US. We have this scenario prevalent in the case of most of the parents based in India with their children working/living in the US. Presently, the Indian govt allows tuition fees in dollars with nominal charges, to be paid by Indian parents to the US universities when the kids enrol in varsities abroad, but even this has a ceiling.

What shall happen if the taxes are waived off by the US for investment transfers from Indian parents to their grandchildren either for education fund or for assisting in housing for their children? There can be much more inflows than happening now. The US can also allow transfer in kind such as gold and diamond jewelry that are left back in India by migrating children as they are highly taxable in the US. A ceiling can be fixed for the quantum of transfer. Many Indian immigrants opt for OCI card in India (equivalent of the green card) on acquiring US citizenship that can help retain their inheritances in India. (India does not permit dual citizenship for security reasons). But after a generation or two, they may lose touch with the base. They can benefit from repatriation of funds. Just a thought!

Posted in Economic, Socio-Political

Why small families are good for the nation.

Disclaimer: Before writing on this, I would like to state here that I am against no particular community or individual. I am merely stating this from the point of view of India, the most populous nation in the world with 1.4 billion to feed. We are all entitled to our perceptions.

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A Kerala friend who is a meat eating Hindu was telling me how as a small family they need to suffer. There are ports/sea coasts/backwaters in Kerala where you can get freshest catch of fish, just about to be frozen. This is that very morning’s catch mostly. There are markets where the meat is freshest and not frozen. The friend lives with her husband and two adult children. Whenever she goes for getting meat or fish in the market especially on sundays, says she, she can’t get good deals because, there are some ‘peaceful’ families with 5-6 kids who want the meaty (pun intended) portion for themselves. With adults such as parents, grandparents in typical joint family system, the size of these families may come to 10 or 12 or more. What happens in that event? Even if my friend who is nuclear family has the resources to pay for HER cut of meat/fish, she is DENIED that little legitimate portion of hers because, there are bulk buyers for the fresh meat and fish. Huge families with 10-12 members and half a dozen children, pay up and take the best cut. My friend is left to crumbles. Says she, this is the plight of all Hindus left to the leftovers even if we can pay fair price for what we want. The sellers in the markets naturally want to close a single big deal and wind up. Half a dozen or a dozen of big families of peacefuls take everything leaving literally nothing to smallest families other than crumbs. Big families buy from markets the way restaurants may shop for their daily groceries/meat: wholesale. She was happiest during the demonetization drive because the big buyers did not have the usual 500 rupee note bundles to pay cash and lift the fish basket right from the fishermen. It was the only time she says she ever got a fair deal competing with big buyers, as a middle class wife.

So the questions we have here may be:

  • Just by sheer size of family should one be entitled to larger portions of consumption?
  • Take the case of precious resources such as water. A family with half a dozen kids uses far more water than a family with 2 kids. Even if the bigger family may be able to pay the bills, is that even fair? With extra consumption of water, the bigger family is raising the rate/price of water for small families as well. Over consumption can lead to shortage for everyone. So how should one distribute resources in that case? Both a family with 2 kids and a family with 6 kids, let us say, can only receive 10 buckets of water per day. Its left upto you how you manage the water usage. The reason that the bigger and richer family can afford to pay is IMMATERIAL. The small families and the lower middle class families can still afford to pay their fair bills, provided artificial scarcity for water is NOT created by the big unfair consumers pushing up rates. I think this is how societies must function to ensure social justice to everyone. Everyone should have an equal stake in the pie.
  • This same rule about consumption of water also applies to electricity, gas and other resources that we all pay and use for making our lives better. Suppose someone is earning monthly salary of 100,000 rupees and another one earning mere 10,000 rupees every month. What gives the wrong sense of entitlement to the richer guy to imagine that he can use more of water or electricity or gas than the poorer guy when both are willing to foot reasonable bills for modest/rational consumptions of resources.
  • Suppose the kids of the 6 kid family are doing great in academics. Why should 6 kids from one family be allowed entry to elite institutions in the country with scarce resources denying others their spots. Even if the small families may produce mediocre kids, still their 2 kids must be able to win a merit place in universities, competing with the 6 kid family.
  • The impact of larger families on real estate is horrendous. Suppose the 6 kids buy properties in the city on growing up. Unnecessarily the real estate prices shoot up for everyone. The smaller families have to cough up astronomical prices, the result of a needless competition.
  • Only the sky and air and sunlight and moonlight are free for consumption for all family sizes. Rest are all chargeable.
  • Its wrong sense of entitlement on the part of bigger or richer families to assume that if they have the economic capacity to buy something, they can take possession.

Hindus with small families of 1-2 kids mostly and rarely a third kid therefore face unfair deals everywhere. We are a declining population today – increasing at a decreasing rate. We are losing out to the population j*h*d. This is the sordid truth.

Land ceiling was introduced in India in the early ’70s when most of the wealthier/landed families gave up their real estates voluntarily for redistribution to small/marginal farmers, rural artisans, and urban poor and the landless. The next land ceiling act is long overdue in India. Amassing of wealth started right after the 70s once again. We need one more correction very badly in current times to ensure that everyone has a toehold in the metro cities and not just the old rich or the new flashy rich. A similar act for family planning will also go a long way in preventing the over exploitation of resources by select few who can buy out anything and everything with their economic capacity. Those of us Hindus with limited family size feel cheated at the end of the day.

Google BHOODAN MOVEMENT and Acharya Vinoba Bhave who campaigned the movement. Bhoodan means ‘land donation.’ It was a nonviolent, bloodless movement when the landed gentry came forward voluntarily to donate land to the landless in the country. Vinoba ji was Gandhiji’s disciple who followed in his footsteps. He ushered in a revolution in the country which is unparalleled in world/Indian history thanks to which the rural population in India have a chance.

Some snippets from Google:

What is the significance of Bhoodan Andolan in agriculture sector in India?

The Bhoodan Andolan was the brainchild of (Vinoba) Bhave who wanted to redistribute land from landlords and wealthy zamindars to landless agricultural labourers. Bhave hoped that these labourers would be able to use this new land to practice subsistence cultivation and empower themselves

The Bhoodan movement successfully collected over 4 million acres of land through voluntary donations, with some of it being distributed to landless families. It raised awareness about the issues of landlessness and inspired discussions on land reforms in India.

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For me, a strong believer in social justice but not necessarily a Marxist/communist, limited natural/manmade resources must be distributed free and fair that everyone stands to benefit from them and nobody is excluded from enjoying what is their birthright.