Posted in Economic

Is there oversupply of paper gold as against limited real physical gold ?

Digital gold needs no intro: it is the most happening investment in world markets today making headlines for months now. There is however reportedly, an oversupply of paper gold or digital gold in the world for a while, than actual physical gold in circulation, a point missed by most of us retail investors. Trading/holding stocks in digital gold has made this possible. Holding digital gold is also hassle-free than physical possession. It is said that the ratio of paper gold to physical existing gold in the world could be as skewed as 100:1 or even 250:1. So could this bubble burst anytime crashing the gold markets one fine day? With not enough real gold to back up the digital gold, it is possible that the world economy could be heading towards a crash so far as gold market is concerned. Probably that is why, those like Warren Buffet allegedly keep off digital gold. Digital gold could be a good short term investment than a long term plan, it is said. ETFs seem to be the most favoured platform of gold investment. Owning the physical gold is still the safest way as we know because we are in direct possession of the actual gold that can be stashed away in a vault.

What do I attribute to digital gold working? I, as an Indian housewife, am used to hoarding gold as traditional practice, and don’t fear the fall of the gold prices. But it is true that we women in India hold actual gold in our hands, how much so ever minimum could that be. For us, gold is LIQUIDITY that is matchless. Gold is economic freedom. And gold appreciates maximum, next only to real estate. All these factors make gold the most favoured investment for us ladies. If gold has to crash, then the bubble has to burst in every sector should loans be recalled at short notice, for that matter. World economy will collapse. Just recall housing loan enmasse and see what happens. Domino’s effect. Like a pack of cards, everything has to come crashing in that case. Reality is never the point in the world of economics. How do credit cards work then? Is gold the only bubble waiting to burst? Nations borrow heavily. But I do understand the need to cap the gold market at some point of time. As someone who is in the line of investment averred, gold is not a productive investment and therefore its growth is unnatural. Stocks normally boom when the productivity index improves and quarterly reports show good results. Gold however obeys no such laws. Very much akin to real estate, gold appreciates in value only because of the superficial demand its scarce availability manages to create as against its actual supply. Having said that, a humble housewife/grandma here with no compatible background to post such a comment! But I take the liberty with my half baked info/knowledge!

Can digital gold be realized into real gold? I observed this from a couple of Indian banks. First of all even the leading ones did not have the digital gold platforms that sold 24 k gold gram by gram (or ounce by ounce). ETFs/Gold funds were on offer. But there was this one bank that sold digital gold for a few months which on demand was stated to be deliverable at your doorstep. Product withdrawn from bank services with November end, no wonder! The digital gold sale by ounce did not even last a good six months! Probably the reason is that the bank feared inability to keep up with real supply on demand from customers. However, I see that digital gold sale ounce by ounce is still on offer by a few digital platforms and jewelry houses. The jewelry houses in India cleverly state that your digital gold can be acquired only as gold coins or jewelry from their premises! Well, that means, you can never encash your digital gold at these jewelry houses! In short, by investing in digital gold in these jewelry houses, you are only paying in installments/lumpsum for your future gold purchases! Govt of India and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) do not regulate these platforms trading in digital gold and therefore investment in these platforms may remain risky.

As I see, the govt of India that was issuing sovereign gold bonds for years has since withdrawn the bond issuances from last year! The big headache of paying off the maturing bonds in near future awaits the Indian govt!

Any other info I may glean, I shall update here with.

What do I think about middle class investments in digital gold. I think if you can take the risk, you can afford to invest in digital gold. It still is a great investment – long term investment in my PERSONAL opinion. Its worth the risk, provided you have other investments to bank on, in case of an unprecedented crash. So far world has not witnessed such a debacle, but let us wait and watch.

Posted in Economic

SEBI bans Jane Street

Not at all surprised. Most of us retailers are minimum or small investors who don’t matter. But our funds are hard-earned money marked for retirement, children’s graduation etc. Our stock investments are our nest egg. We invest our life savings in BSE/NSE, India’s national stock exchanges, and what happens? We are taken to dizzying heights only to be plummeted to unimaginable lows so harshly that most of us have to write off our losses. At the same time, the FIIs or the Foreign Institutional Investors have been spotted laughing their way out of our stock markets. I am not a tech person to talk about this but I can understand when experts explain things to us in layman language.

https://www.livemint.com/market/stock-market-news/sebi-bans-jane-street-revealed-list-of-nifty-50-bank-nifty-stocks-that-us-brokerage-targeted-11751616782235.html

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/company/corporate-trends/jane-street-vs-millennium-a-us-tech-feud-sparked-indias-biggest-market-probe/articleshow/122263135.cms?from=mdr

https://www.ndtvprofit.com/markets/sebi-bars-jane-street-group-from-indian-securities-market

Entire market is manipulative, going by its nature, agreed. Still this is audacious. What has America got to say on this. Tight lipped as about Lehman brothers’ losses? The Third world countries bore the brunt of Lehman brothers. Any idea for America to make good our losses? To someone talking tough on immigration, dispensing economic justice must not be a problem. The US govt also holds tonnes of gold of world nations including India, entrusted to them for safekeeping. Sometimes one wonders, whether the gold may be safer in India!

Anyway, ever since Trump came to power and the markets went on bear mode, we have our DIIs in India , the Domestic Institutional Investors, picking up the reins which is a good sign. Anyway I trust the DIIs over FIIs. The industrial growth story looks promising, the order books look good, the net profits are soaring. India shall remain a top economy in Asia registering highest possible growth rate and a top investment destination.

Posted in Political

The Aftermath Of Bangladesh.

Adani power plant is reportedly being taken over by Chinese company in Bangladesh. Tata is pulling out of Bangladesh. Besides these two, vast Indian investments in Bangladesh are taken over by their government. This must serve as a big lesson to Govt of India who wants to invest in troubled nations like Afghanistan and Bangladesh. You just cannot reform anyone howmuchever good your intentions may be. Leave them to their destiny.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/business/tata-group-pulls-out-of-bangladesh/story-sll89v9ArXEkE8wWtizAoM.html

Tirupur, Tamil Nadu is known as the hosiery capital of the world. With the cotton output in the country, they have been manufacturers for Victoria secret etc., and leading garment manufacturers for global brands like Zara, etc. Tirupur registered dismal growth in last 2 years as all businesses went to Bangladesh. Now there is good news from Tirupur as the importers have returned to this small cotton textile town of Tamil Nadu.

(copy & paste)

India’s textile hub of Tirupur is facing a revival of fortunes after nearly two years with a flurry of orders from the US and UK, helped also by political instability in neighbouring Bangladesh. With this, the city’s 5,000 apparel export units are buzzing with activity with their factories operating at 95% capacity.

https://www.business-standard.com/industry/news/tiruppur-textile-industry-returns-to-growth-posts-13-rise-in-exports-124111101502_1.html

This is going to affect Bangladesh seriously. Their textiles industry supports a booming lower middle class. The shift back to Tirupur will prove to be a blow below the belt for them.