Posted in Economic

Is there oversupply of paper gold as against limited real physical gold ?

Digital gold needs no intro: it is the most happening investment in world markets today making headlines for months now. There is however reportedly, an oversupply of paper gold or digital gold in the world for a while, than actual physical gold in circulation, a point missed by most of us retail investors. Trading/holding stocks in digital gold has made this possible. Holding digital gold is also hassle-free than physical possession. It is said that the ratio of paper gold to physical existing gold in the world could be as skewed as 100:1 or even 250:1. So could this bubble burst anytime crashing the gold markets one fine day? With not enough real gold to back up the digital gold, it is possible that the world economy could be heading towards a crash so far as gold market is concerned. Probably that is why, those like Warren Buffet allegedly keep off digital gold. Digital gold could be a good short term investment than a long term plan, it is said. ETFs seem to be the most favoured platform of gold investment. Owning the physical gold is still the safest way as we know because we are in direct possession of the actual gold that can be stashed away in a vault.

What do I attribute to digital gold working? I, as an Indian housewife, am used to hoarding gold as traditional practice, and don’t fear the fall of the gold prices. But it is true that we women in India hold actual gold in our hands, how much so ever minimum could that be. For us, gold is LIQUIDITY that is matchless. Gold is economic freedom. And gold appreciates maximum, next only to real estate. All these factors make gold the most favoured investment for us ladies. If gold has to crash, then the bubble has to burst in every sector should loans be recalled at short notice, for that matter. World economy will collapse. Just recall housing loan enmasse and see what happens. Domino’s effect. Like a pack of cards, everything has to come crashing in that case. Reality is never the point in the world of economics. How do credit cards work then? Is gold the only bubble waiting to burst? Nations borrow heavily. But I do understand the need to cap the gold market at some point of time. As someone who is in the line of investment averred, gold is not a productive investment and therefore its growth is unnatural. Stocks normally boom when the productivity index improves and quarterly reports show good results. Gold however obeys no such laws. Very much akin to real estate, gold appreciates in value only because of the superficial demand its scarce availability manages to create as against its actual supply. Having said that, a humble housewife/grandma here with no compatible background to post such a comment! But I take the liberty with my half baked info/knowledge!

Can digital gold be realized into real gold? I observed this from a couple of Indian banks. First of all even the leading ones did not have the digital gold platforms that sold 24 k gold gram by gram (or ounce by ounce). ETFs/Gold funds were on offer. But there was this one bank that sold digital gold for a few months which on demand was stated to be deliverable at your doorstep. Product withdrawn from bank services with November end, no wonder! The digital gold sale by ounce did not even last a good six months! Probably the reason is that the bank feared inability to keep up with real supply on demand from customers. However, I see that digital gold sale ounce by ounce is still on offer by a few digital platforms and jewelry houses. The jewelry houses in India cleverly state that your digital gold can be acquired only as gold coins or jewelry from their premises! Well, that means, you can never encash your digital gold at these jewelry houses! In short, by investing in digital gold in these jewelry houses, you are only paying in installments/lumpsum for your future gold purchases! Govt of India and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) do not regulate these platforms trading in digital gold and therefore investment in these platforms may remain risky.

As I see, the govt of India that was issuing sovereign gold bonds for years has since withdrawn the bond issuances from last year! The big headache of paying off the maturing bonds in near future awaits the Indian govt!

Any other info I may glean, I shall update here with.

What do I think about middle class investments in digital gold. I think if you can take the risk, you can afford to invest in digital gold. It still is a great investment – long term investment in my PERSONAL opinion. Its worth the risk, provided you have other investments to bank on, in case of an unprecedented crash. So far world has not witnessed such a debacle, but let us wait and watch.

Posted in Political

Doge vs Goat loans of India.

This is from my bank days. Ours was a private one owned by 7 other banks, largest among them being a nationalized one holding majority stake. Other 6 banks were private banks. This was before 1992-93 when banking reforms were signed between bank staff associations and the central govt. I am not clear about the present day scenario as I left my service over a quarter century back. We were then seeing the last of manual banking days as ATMs were beginning to be installed. In 1993, I got my first computer training for bank employees in Bangalore to acquaint us with computerization. A huge computer department came up in my HQ. I recall the monochrome PCs and our own typewriters being replaced with electronic Brother machines in all departments. Yet we were still doing only core banking: BORROWING AND LENDING. Debit/credit cards were issued by very few banks – mostly by the international ones. Slowly we were diversifying. Took India 8 more years upto the millennium to add bill payment, car/housing loans, insurance etc., to banking, and for cards to become huge.

Most of the international banks in India have now closed down unable to compete with the Indian banks that can give any of them a run for their money – be it when it comes to quality of banking staff or operations.

But up until at least the early 90s, nationalized banks in India and even private sector banks mandatorily had to run rural branches even if at a loss. Ours ran many. Since I was attached with Advances, I got a picture of these things. Rural advances were for those like goat loans, for buying pesticides and fertilizers (for farmers) etc., and for rural artisans such as weavers for instance to procure fabrics, threads etc. The biggest among them would be a rare tractor loan or a borewell loan. Branches had limited discretion. Mostly branches dealt with them. We used to get the summary (monthly reports) only as the sums advanced were paltry. Recall this branch from near Salem in Tamil Nadu – this rural branch had only villagers coming in for goat loans etc. To fit their convenience, even the branch followed staggered timings up until evening 8. It made a total loss. It still had a manager, an accountant and a clerk! It was a total waste. So many branches worked this way all across India – many many thousands. There was never the profit motive. It was only to serve the rural population and to reach into the most inhospitable terrains. We used to tease the officers posted there for their ‘punishment transfers!’ Once in their service time, every bank officer had to mandatorily work for at least 3 years in a most backward rural branch. So many, many rural outposts with no paved roads. In some pickets, electricity would be erratic. Yet the branches functioned. They still do under nationalized banks. The motto was ‘service to rural India.’

In 1992-93, banking reforms were signed in. It is at this stage that the NPAs (the non performing assets) started getting classified. Recovery cells/departments were formed for the first time to pursue matters even legally if situation warranted. Earlier, rural loans used to be written off when monsoons failed given the dismal economic background of the small village borrowers. The borrowers were mostly marginal farmers working on leased plots. If you would press them for recovery, they would even commit suicide. They were in very bad shape. Too poor and distressed. Still from 1993, reminders would go to the rural branches strictly advising them on recovery. Once I saw a very poor farmer in dhoti and without a shirt, walking into our department asking for waiver of his goat loan. He had traveled hundreds of kilometers using what little money he had for buying his bus tickets. I am conditioned by these sights and real life stories fortunately or unfortunately. Banks, instead of writing them off, started rephrasing their loans asking them to pay up in installments. There were instances when even legal notices were served on the illiterate farmers. Goats could get seized (!) for non repayment of loans with due interests thereoff!

Whereas I was also witness to how huge, huge credits were just like that disbursed without board approval when it was ‘suitable’ for the bank. Suppose the urban branch manager had no discretion, and the limit exceeded his powers, still if the party was influential enough, the higherups in Advances would quietly sanction every loan and then apply to the board for ratification. I have seen this with my own eyes and my blood would boil. Huge credits turning into bad loans also happened. Defaulters were still trusted. And after a point, writing off also happened without board approval. What is the board for except for ratifying misuse of powers. But the rural poor were pounded for repayment. I was too young then yet I was painfully aware of this unfair system. My colleagues/friends would ask me not to get sentimental about my job – but I could hardly be like them. Its good I left my service.

When I see Doge in America and their war cry to cut govt expenses, I am still reminded of the selfless services rendered by nationalized banks of India and even our railways, running the show for just a handful of people at times in remotest corners of the country, even incurring huge losses in the process. They say India is third world, but I have come to respect more and more our values and sense of social justice. The sense of inclusion you see in India in every sphere of life can be amazing. A first world nation like America wants to curtail government expenses. What an irony of situations!

Now in this digital era, I am so elated that the same rural India has villagers with barcodes (!) and UPI payment apps in their smart phones! You can buy a plate of samosas for snacking from a hawker and the barcode could be printed just on his push cart! Once on a highway I had tender coconut stopping our car. The coconut seller was from a nearby village. He had printed his barcode on the tree under which he was selling tender coconut! Its got that much easy to transact and do business with villagers these days. Increasingly going paperless also. But I am sure rural branches of our nationalized banks continue to serve the very distant pockets of India where loans for agriculture and loans to rural artisans who practise their trades from villages are very important. We are two entirely different nations: America and India. All these social indicators point to why India is not as developed as America. India is a welfare economy that puts the interests of the masses first over anything. Private profit is still secondary to us. Indian economy is mixed economy with both private and public sector participation in equal measures.

Lastly, kudos to Indian railways whose network covers the last outpost in every nook and corner of the country. They have got every square centimeter of the national geography covered and service the loss making areas without profit motive.

Posted in Political

MIGA NOT MAGA

Shocked to watch this video. What a hatred. What an ugly despicable human being. Monster actually.

PM Shri Narendra Modiji, PUT ON HOLD ALL APPLICATIONS OF INDIAN ASPIRANTS FOR ADMISSION TO MASTERS STEM COURSES IN US UNIVERSITIES. FROM 2025 FALL, NOT A SINGLE INDIAN GRADUATE MUST STEP INTO AMERICA in next 2-3 years. BRING THE AMERICAN ECONOMY TO A STANDSTILL. LET THE AMERICAN UNVERSITIES CLOSE. Let their IT companies lock up. AVERAGE COURSE FEES FOR MS DEGREE IN US IS 50,000 TO EVEN 150,000 $ DEPENDING ON THE RANKING OF THE UNIVERSITY. APART FROM THAT INDIAN PARENTS SHELL OUT LIVING EXPENSES AMOUNTING TO THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS. ALL THIS OUT OF LOANS PAYING OUT OF THEIR HARD EARNED EARNINGS. CRASH THE AMERICAN ECONOMY.

PM MODI JI, BRING HOME ALL THE MEDICOS ON GREENCARD IN THE US. TELL THEM IF THEY DO NOT RETURN ASAP, THEIR PASSPORTS STAND TO BE SUMMARILY CANCELLED. GIVE THEM A DEADLINE. WITHOUT INDIAN DOCTORS, LET THEIR HOSPITALS STINK.

Its mandatory to stop our IIT/IIM graduates on who India spends obscene sums of money from flying to the US. Bolster our own schools of technology and medicine. This is a 1.4 billion country already. Are we not ticking?

Lets make INDIA great. MAKE INDIA GREAT AGAIN fellow Indians, not the ungrateful ugly America. Today the best on-road SUVs in India are India=made Mahindra and Tata. Its Tata who owns the Landrover and Jaguar in the UK.

Nobody can stop India from stopping her young people from going to the US for higher education. Its perfectly democratic on our part to do what we please with our own children.

H1B is internal matter of the US agreed, but this racist abuse is unwarranted. This torrential hate speech, racial slur/abuse is out of burning jealousy for the success of the Indian community that these whites are unable to digest. You have to spank your own kids and save them from dope/booze and fast life.

We all have family and friends in America. May Shiva and Shakthi protect their children wherever they are. US is becoming a very unsafe place for Indians.

PS: This white man’s wife probably slept with an Indian guy hahaha!